The question of democracy and liberal ideals has been quite a stir in Eastern Europe, particularly in the Ukraine, in recent months. The Ukraine, a former Soviet Republic and part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) now has a newly elected liberal-minded President Viktor Yushenchenko. Mr. Yushenchenko in under pressure from its neighbouring country Russia, whether he will sign a renewed accord of the Common Economic Space (CES) or decide to join the European Union (EU).



International Relations and Eastern European politics have become an interest for me in the last year. What I found most interesting was the elections in the Ukraine. Eventually, this led me the interest in writing my essay on the CES. Will the Ukraine reaffirm its accord to reform the CES in a free-trade agreement with Russia, Belarusse and Kazakhstan in a Common Economic Space? Two International Relation (IR) theories that I believe apply to this essay is how does liberalism and democracy, liberalist theory come into play with regard to the CES and another is whether President Yushchenko will agree to a renewed agreement of the CES or decide to start the process to join the EU. This leads me to think of the balance of power and whether Mr. Yushchenko will be a balancer or bandwagon. Alternatively, will Russia balance with Ukraine in order to strengthen itself economically, and on foreign policy, and military power to form a new Eurasian geopolity?



The newly elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko now has the tough decision in the next few years of either renewing a Common Economic Space (CES) agreement with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan or join the European Union (EU), which would make the Ukraine have a closer tie with the West and break away from the authoritarian and imperialist tie with Russia. To better under how the CES accord started, I must explain a little about the Ukraine and its history, post cold war; became an independent and democratic sovereign state in 1991. Then signing an agreement to join the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), former soviet republics, and finally the accord on Common Economic Space (CES).

After the cold war in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet-Union, the Ukraine became an independent state in 1991. It joined the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in December 1991, and in September 2003, Ukraine signed an Agreement on a Common Economic Space (CES) with Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia.

When the Ukraine became an independent state, it started the process to become a democratic society. In December 1991, the Ukraine became part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Eleven independent states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine were part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In 1993, Georgia became the 12 independent state to join the CIS.

The Ukraine set-up a plan to have a democratic government in which there would be a “balance of power between the Parliament, President, and an independent judiciary; the provision for local self-government; and a constitutional that would guarantee human rights and freedoms, property rights and the like. Ukraine achieved membership in the Council of Europe (ahead of Russia); it solemnly promised to constitute reforms and to transform the former soviet state in accord of democratic values, norms and standards of human rights required of Member States” (Holovaty 1999).

The Ukraine established a new currency, established privatization of all businesses, reduced inflation and established a “legislative framework for market development” (Holovaty 1999).

“To facilitate this process, the Verkhovna Rada not only passed laws on privatization and foreign investment; it has since 1993 delegated to the government and the President extraordinary powers to regulate the economy by decree” (Holovaty 1999).

In the CIS meeting “In September 1993, the heads of states signed the Treaty on establishment of the Economic Union, in which they developed the concept of transformation of economic interaction within the Commonwealth, taking into consideration the current realities. The Treaty was based on the necessity of formation of the common economic space on the principles of free movement of goods, services, workers, capitals; elaboration of concerted money and credit, tax, price, customs and foreign economic policies; rapprochement of the methods of management of economic activities, creation of favorable conditions for development of direct production links.” (© The Executive Committee of the Commonwealth of the Independent States, 2005)

In 1994, the first Presidential election was held and Leonid Kuchma defeated Mr. Kravchuk Since that time, President Leonid Kuchma remained as President (1994-2004) and the Ukraine has been struggling with corruption in the Ukrainian parliament “Verkhovna Rada,” the economy collapsing, drop in value of the currency, and renewed communist support with Russia. The Ukraine continued to struggle with controversy and a “shadowy economy” under Kuchma’s rule.

In September 2003, Ukraine signed an Agreement on a Common Economic Space (CES), or common market, with Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. The Agreement would see economic relations between the countries and eventually leading to the formation of an economic union. The Ukraine only agreed to a free trade zone which they require with Russia so that they would no longer have to pay steep tariffs for Russian goods and would like to pay the same price of Russia’s gas and oil as the Russians are paying. However, the Ukrainian government considered this agreement unconstitutional with the Ukraine. As well, the government believed that President Kuchma would jeopardize the Ukraine’s chances of becoming a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). In



In 2004, President Kuchma decided to retire and confidently conceded that Viktor Yanukovych, Prime Minister would succeed him by winning in the Presidential elections. The Kremlin endorsed Yanukovch as there preferred choice as the next President of Ukraine. President Putin had even endorsed Mr. Yanukovych’s campaign and the Kremlin. It became a dirty and controversial election where the opponent of Mr. Yanukovych, Mr. Yushchenko was poisoned. The speculation is that Russian officials were the culprits. After the elections of November 21, 2004, “Prime Minister Yanukovich was reported to have taken 49.5% of the vote, and Yushchenko 46.5%. International monitors declared the elections massively fraudulent. Hundreds of thousands of Yushchenko's supporters took to the streets of the capital and other cities in protest, and what became known as the Orange Revolution (after Yushchenko's signature campaign color) continued full strength over the next two weeks. On Dec. 3, the Supreme Court invalidated the election results, calling for a new runoff to be held on Dec. 26. On Dec. 8, Parliament voted in favor of an overhaul of Ukraine's political system, amending the constitution to reform election laws and transferring some presidential powers to the Parliament. In the final presidential runoff on Dec. 26, Yushchenko won 52% of the vote to Yanukovich's 44.2%. On Jan. 23, 2005, Viktor Yushchenko was sworn in. The following day he appointed fellow reformist Yulia Timoshenko as acting prime minister.” (Fact Monster/Information Please® Database, © 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.)



With everything that has happened President Viktor Yushchenko, has sworn to eliminate the corruption in parliament, boost the economy and make it a liberal and democratic society as it originally set out to be. He also has said that he does not hold any bitterness toward Russia and President Putin and he would like to renew a friendly relation with Russia, which were strained during the 2004 Presidential elections. On March 19, 2005 President Putin and Yushenchenko met in Kiev to discuss the renewal of the Common Economic Space (CES).



It is important for Russia to renew the CES with Ukraine Russia needs the Ukraine and the Ukraine needs Russia. As Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, the national security advisor under former president Jimmy Carter maintains, "It cannot be stressed strongly enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire." (GlobalSecurity.org March 23, 2005). The two countries are interdependent on one another. Russia relies on the Ukraine for exporting its raw materials to Europe through Ukraine’s seaports and the Ukraine rely on Russia for its oil a gas. It is also important for Russia to renew the CES and free-trade agreement in order to modernize itself and to advance technologically. Russia needs the Ukraine to boost its economy and to double its gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of the decade. Russia needs the Ukraine in terms of transnational security between each country and Belarus and Kazakhstan. If the Ukraine were to join NATO, the Russian’s Black Sea fleet based in the Crimean port of Sebastopol would be compromised.



As it stands, President Putin has extended his hand to President Yushchenko and has not pushed his authoritarian ideals on the President of the Ukraine. This leads me to believe that Putin is willing to re-evaluate his situation in a more liberal minded and democratic manner in order to sign a new accord for a single common economic union under the Common Economic Space - between the Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. As Immanuel Kant, an 18th century liberal theorist “believed that democracies do not go to war with each other.” The same would seem to hold true between Russia and Ukraine because Russia would stand to loose a great deal threatening its neighbour and the same would hold true with Ukraine. However, I believe the Ukraine stands a better chance of succeeding because the West, particularly the EU and US would like to see the Ukraine join the EU and expanding it to border to Asia. Drawing again on the Immanuel Kant, Kant lays out a three-stage plan for the development of perpetual peace between states. (Doyle, 1986, pp. 1151-1169). Firstly, states must have a republican constitution, which protected the rights of individuals, have a representative government with a separation of powers, the rule of law and a market based economy. The second stage, which is the spread of the pacific peace, will take place when states have learnt the hard lessons of war and peace and begin the process of moving towards some sort of a collective security agreement. The third stage – cosmopolitan law – cements the notion of peace and ensures that states will have moved on to a qualitatively new stage in their relations. NATO, an organization that in many ways epitomises Kant’s ideals, has a pivotal role to play in facilitating the democratic transformation in Russia and Ukraine. By NATO encouraging key norms and values of democracy, freedom and the rule of law in these two states it is likely to shape and influence positively their foreign policy and further strengthen the prospects for good neighbourly relations. NATO’s engagement of these two states could lead to a positive spill over effect of Kant’s notion of perpetual peace.” (Doyle). I believe this holds true for both Russia and Ukraine.



My second theory is whether the Ukraine is a balancer or bandwagon in a realist theory. Usually if an aggressor is threatening a state, the state will usually balance with a state(s) that are none threatening. In the Ukraine’s case, it has become a balancer with Russia and the CIS and balancer between the US and EU. In the balance of power the Ukraine has everything to gain by forming an alliance with the US and Western European States in order to control Russia from forcing the Ukraine to return and once again be part of an imperial Russia. Russia stands to gain if the Ukraine agrees to the Common Economic Space (CES) by creating a Single Common Space with Belarus, Kazakhstan. If President Putin and Yushchenko do not agree on the CES within the next year, Russia may see itself becoming a “giant raw materials warehouse for the workshops of Europe, China, and Japan, says Ruslan Grinberg, director of the independent Institute of International and Political Studies in Moscow” (Weir 2004). Russia stands to gain economically from this free-trade agreement with the Ukraine and the Ukraine stand to reduce its high deficit in trade with Russia at $6 billion in 2004, which has increased from 36% year to 40%. On humanitarian grounds, Russia would like to reduce travel restrictions and cross-border regulations in order to facilitate approximately 3 million Ukrainian citizens unable to find work at home control to work in Russia.



President Putin and Yushchenko met on March 19, 2004 in Kiev to discuss the Common Economic Reform (CES). The meeting was positive and both Presidents agreed to pass a plan of Russian-Ukrainian cooperation” (Putin 2005). President Yushchenko mentioned, “both will create a high-level intergovernmental Ukraine-Russian commission “Putin-Yushchenko.” (Yushchenko 2005). President Yushchenko mentioned that committees will be formed and will consist of four areas: international cooperation, economic relations, defense issues, and humanitarian sphere.



I believe that there is a chance that both Presidents will reach a common free-trade agreement, but not necessarily a CES. This type of agreement is necessary for both countries to be able to prosper economically and with foreign policy in an ever-growing global environment, where increasingly sovereign liberal and democratic states are growing and joining the EU. This will also facilitate more of a transnational union in Europe and North America.



BIBLIOGRAPHY



CIS ExecutiveCommittee, CIS [Online] Available at: http://www.infoukes.com/history/constitution/index-en.html



Commonwealth of Independent States [Online] Available at: http://www.cis.minsk.by/ENGLISH/engl_cis.htm



Consitution of the Ukraine [Online] Available at: http://www.infoukes.com/history/constitution/index-en.html



Economist, 2005 [Online] Available at: http://www.economist.com/countries/Ukraine/



Diehl, Jackson, 2004 ‘Putin’s unchallenged imperialism moves to Ukraine’ [online] Available at: http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1028/p09s02-coop.html



Fact Monster/Information Please® Database, © 2005 Pearson Education, Inc [Online] Available at: http://www.factmonster.com/ce6/world/A0861688.html



Holovaty, Serhiy, 1999 ‘Ukraine at the Crossroads: Perspectives on Independence', Democracy, and Reform [Online] Available at: http://www.trilateral.org/annmtgs/trialog/trlgtxts/t53/hol.htm



Ministry of Foreign Affairs of th Russian Federation, 2005 ‘Press Conference on the Results of Russian-Ukrainian Talks, Kiev, March 19, 2005’ [Online] Available at: http:// wwww.In.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/a520294aea76f8ddc3256fcc00520d79?OpenDocument

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/intro.htm



Moroney, Jennifer D.P., 1999-2001, ‘Ukraine’s ‘European Choice’ in the East-West Frontier’, [Online] Available at: http://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/99-01/moroney.pdf



Sanders, Deborah, ‘Defence Diplomacy: Optimising Foreign Military Assistance and Forging MatureRelations between Russia and Ukraine’ [Online] Available at:

http://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/01-03/sanders.pdf For details see Michael W Doyle, ‘Liberalism and World Politics’, American Political Science

Review, 80/4 December 1986, pp.1151-1169.



Sanders, Deborah, ‘Defence Diplomacy: Optimising Foreign Military Assistance and Forging MatureRelations between Russia and Ukraine’ [Online] Available at: http://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/01-03/sanders.pdf For details see Michael W Doyle, ‘Kant, liberal legacies, and Foreign Affairs’ and Kant, Liberal

Legacies and Foreign Affairs, Part 2’, Philosophy and Public Affairs.



Ukraine Now – Economy, 2004 ‘Prospects for a common economic space’, [Online] Available at: http:// www.ukrnow.com/content/view/2493/27



Weber, Tim, 2005 ‘Yushchenko to ‘tackle corruption’ [Online] Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4220005.stm



Weir, Fred, 2004, ‘Putin woos Ukraine with a Russian common market’, The Christian Science Monitor [Online] Available at; http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1118/p07s01-woei.html

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